Wuhan Corona Virus in Tokyo
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Notice the head melting? |
So lets dig into Japan. At the time of this writing, Tokyo has issued a state of emergency. This actually means very little. The emergency is a suggestion more than an enforced fact. Which is ok. I notice people all around the world are begging government for stronger controls. This is a double edged sword. Japan knows this history well. Not too long ago, the Peace and Preservation Act was used to cut out dissent. Putting teeth into emergency measures can be dangerous and have a long term impact. So if one wants to understand the first part of why they have not enacted Chinese style totalitarian measures, just look to this.
Next is a sort of Japanese willful ignorance of all things 'gaikoku'. For a long time, this virus was not a real concern in Japan. So it was not a Japanese issue. This attitude will possibly change in the coming days as it forcibly becomes a Japanese issue. Yesterday alone, the country wide increase in cases was an unheard of 740 new infected. The recent death due to Covid of Japan's beloved comedian Shimura Ken caused an almost immediate snap back to reality. For those who do not know, Shimura Ken was equivalent to Robin Williams in Japan. A household name. Americans might also know him. His show served as the inspiration for America's Funniest Home Videos and is credited every episode.
Then we have the Olympics issue. It has not escaped observation that the amount of cases dramatically began to rise AFTER the announcement of the Olympics being postponed. Its no secret that the testing procedures changed as well. Before, you could only get a test if you showed serious symptoms AND had been in contact with a confirmed infected or someone from a foreign hot zone. Thankfully these restrictions have been relaxed, and hotlines have been set up.
So far we have had two real shopping panics, and I expect a new one again soon. The first panic involved the mass hoarding of toilet paper during the onset of the virus. This died down in the coming weeks as cases began to stagnate. The second big shopping panic was around last week. With an impending announcement of a state of emergency, people made a run on the stores. Somehow supply kept up with demand and things went on as normal, albeit slightly longer lines at the supermarket. As Japanese people begin to realize this is not going away, and is in fact getting dramatically more serious, I think we will see a much bigger run. Still, things are normal. Businesses are largely open. Lines for ramen shops are as long as usual. Even the elderly walk along the river with no difference other than a face mask. This very well might change soon. It also might not.
Japan has a difficult economic road ahead. The long term economic stagnation of Japan is not something that can really allow the whole country to shut down. A very real threat of economic collapse is present. Luckily for Japan, they are a sovereign nation with their own currency. This really allows a bit of 'economic flexibility' that countries say, within the EU, do not have. One thing is for sure though, no one can print money like the US fed. Can Japan afford to shut down? Can it afford not to?
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